Thucydides Trap
The Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides's Trap, is a term coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon. It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China.
The term is based on a quote by ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides, which posited that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta had been inevitable because of Spartan fear of the growth of Athenian power.
Origin
The term was coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in a 2012 article for the Financial Times about a potential conflict between The United States and China, based on a quote from ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides's text History of the Peloponnesian War, in which Thucydides posits that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable". Allison further expanded on the term in Destined for War, his book propounding the argument that "China and the US are currently on a collision course for war".Definition
The term describes the theory that when a great power's position as hegemon is threatened by an emerging power, there is a significant likelihood of war between the two powers. Or in coiner Graham Allison's words:
Thucydide's Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power... when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.
As evidence of this, Allison points to a case study by the Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs that he headed, which found that among the 16 historical instances in which an emerging power rivaled a ruling power, 12 of them ended in war.
Influence
The term and arguments surrounding it have had influence in international media, including Chinese state media, and among American and Chinese politicians. A case study of the term by Alan Greeley Misenheimer published by the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the military research arm of the National Defense University, states that it "has received global attention since entering the international relations lexicon". Furthermore, BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus has quipped that Graham Allison's book expanding on the Thucydides trap, Destined For War, "has become required reading for many policymakers, academics and journalists".China–United States relations
The term is primarily used and was coined in relation to a potential military conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Scholars have noted that there are a number of pressing issues the two nations are at odds over, including the de facto independence of Taiwan, China’s digital policing and its use of cyber espionage, differing policies towards North Korea, China's increased naval presence in the Pacific and its claims over the South China Sea, and human rights in Xianjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, that increase the likelihood of the two powers falling into the Thucydides trap. Some also point to the consolidation of power by Chinese Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping, an irreconcilable difference in values between the United States and China, and the trade deficit with China as further evidence the countries may be slipping into the Thucydides trap. Paramount leader of China Xi Jinping has himself referenced the term, cautioning that: "We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap—destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers…Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations".The term picked picked up steam in 2018 as a result of a surge in US-Chinese tensions after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on almost half of China’s exports to the US, resulting in a tit-for-tat series of economic escalations.
Criticism
China-US relations
A number of scholars have criticized the application of the Thucydides trap to US-China relations. For instance, Richard Hanania, a research fellow at Columbia University, argues that there is no Thucydides Trap between the United States and China because China's ambitions are limited primarily to combating internal issues, and thus China will not pose a significant threat to US interests. Professor Hu Bo of Peking University's Institute of Ocean Research and one of China's foremost naval strategists has similarly said: "I think the balance of power doesn't support the Thucydides hypothesis". Other scholars like Historian Arthur Waldron have claimed that China is still far too weak for such a conflict, pointing in particular to their "economic vulnerabilities" and an exodus of Chinese out of China.Others have derided the Thucydides Trap as a quaint piece of ancient history that is not particularly applicable to modern times. James Palmer, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy, in his article "Oh God, Not the Peloponnesian War Again", wrote of the Thucydides Trap that "conflicts between city-states in a backwater Eurasian promontory 2,000 years ago are an unreliable guide to modern geopolitics—and they neglect a vast span of world history that may be far more relevant". He further derisively noted that Thucydides shouldn't "hold the same grip on international relations scholars that Harry Potter does on millennial readers".
In a reverse of Allison's concerns, Harvard University political scientist Joseph S. Nye has argued that the primary concern is actually not the rise of China leading to a Thucydides trap, but rather internal issues within China leading to a weakening of China in what he calls a "Kindleberger Trap".
Methodological criticisms
The research by Graham Allison supporting the Thucydides trap has also been criticized. Harvard University political scientist Joseph S. Nye has contested the claim that of 16 historical cases of a rising power rivaling a ruling power 12 led to war on the basis that Allison misidentified cases. For example, he points to the case of World War I, which Allison identifies as a case of emerging Germany rivaling established Britain, saying that Allison misidentifies the causes of World War I. Historian Arthur Waldron has similarly argued that Allison mischaracterizes several conflicts. For example, he says of the Japan-Russia conflict included by Allison: "Japan was the rising power in 1904 while Russia was long established. Did Russia therefore seek to preempt Japan? No. The Japanese launched a surprise attack on Russia, scuttling the Czar’s fleet."In a case study for the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the military research arm of the National Defense University, Alan Greeley Misenheimer says that "Thucydides’ text does not support Allison’s normative assertion about the 'inevitable' result of an encounter between 'rising' and 'ruling' powers" and that while it "draws welcome attention both to Thucydides and to the pitfalls of great power competition" it "fails as a heuristic device or predictive tool in the analysis of contemporary events".