The Raila Doctrine simply states ''...a presidential election can never be declared to have been free and/or fair unless Raila Odinga wins the election." It was coined if reference to Raila Odinga reacting to his losses in elections in Kenya, which he has termed as fraudulent. The phrase was coined in a legal argument by Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi representing the IEBC during the Kenyan Presidential elections petition that was heard by the Supreme Court of Kenya in March 2013.
Background
Raila Odinga who also happens to be the immediate former Kenyan Prime Minister, has contested four times for presidency of Kenya and withdrawn once in the 2017 October polls. Odinga and his National Super Alliance had pledged not to take part in the vote re-run unless reforms were made to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. In 1997 Raila Odinga garnered 667,886 representing approximately 10.80% of the total votes cast in an election that was won by Daniel arap Moi who was vying as the incumbent. In the 2002 Kenyan general election, Raila Odinga dropped his presidential ambition in favor of Mwai Kibaki after his now famous proclamation Kibaki Tosha. After the election victory, Raila was to fall out with Mwai Kibaki after acrimoniously accusing Mwai Kibaki of failing to honor a pre-election MOU that they had allegedly signed. In 2007, Raila Odinga was poised to be the Kenya's fourth president after riding a "popularity wave". However, matters took a different turn when in the final minutes of tallying, votes started streaming in showing that Mwai Kibaki was actually winning the election. The ECK made a formal declaration, that Mwai Mibaki was the winner. This triggered widespread violence throughout Kenya and over 1200 people were killed, after Raila Odinga called for Mass action. Raila Odinga called for peace, having accepted what is now referred to as "the half loaf of bread offer" from Kibaki, to be appointed the Prime Minister of Kenya. In 2008, Raila Odinga was instrumental to in bringing the Kriegler Commission to investigate the post election violence. Following the Kriegler Report the ECK was disbanded and sweeping changes were implemented which included the Constitution of Kenya and the IEBC In the 2013 General Elections, the IEBC declared that Raila Odinga had lost to Uhuru Kenyatta. Raila Odinga refused to accept defeat. In a press conference shortly after the results were announced noted that the election had been marred by massive failures by the BVR kits, EVID, RTS and the RPS. He claimed that the manual tallying was suspect leaving him no choice but to The Kenya contest the result in Kenya's highest court, The Supreme Court. Mindful of bringing the challenge, Raila Odinga and his lawyers George Oraro, Mutula Kilonzo, and James Orengo, secretly instructed Raj Pal Senna, a Management Consultant from Barcelona to carry out a forensic investigation of the technology used in the Kenyan General Election 2013, during which the IEBC made claims on TV and media that there were "technological challenges", that "servers overloaded" and that "database crashed". Raj Pal Senna included in this work a forensic examination of the evidence of IEBC and Uhuru Kenyatta in relation to the technology deployed during the Kenyan Presidential Elections. Raila Odinga and his lawyers then took appropriate legal steps to verify the findings of Raj Pal Senna by consulting authorities in the USA and the UK. The findings of the Raj Pal Senna were then documented in his witness statement for Raila Odinga, and became to be known as "Witness Statement RO6" The Supreme Court subsequently dismissed The Kenya Presidential Election Petition 2013 on 30 March 2013, and Chief Justice Willy Mutunga directed a criminal investigation of the IEBC. In the 2017 elections, Raila Odinga again vied for the presidential position, prior to the elections, he alleged that the ruling coalition was working with IEBC to rig him out 'again'. The opposition made sure that a lot of changes had been made in the IEBC. In Aug 11, 2017, IEBC declared the incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta as the winner of the August 8, 2017 Elections Nasa coalition, led by Raila Odinga filed an election petition at the Supreme Court on Aug 18, 2017. The Supreme Court headed by chief justice David Maraga ruled with a 4-2 majority decision in favor of Raila Odinga, citing massive illegalities and irregularities committed by the IEBC.
Other variations
Raila Doctrine can also be used to encourage African opposition leaders across Africa to contest all flawed elections. These leaders should use all the available legally acceptable channels and courts to stop electoral manipulation by the incumbents. Examples include Kizza Besigye, Ugandan physician, politician and former military officer. Kizza Besigye was a contestant in Uganda's 2001, 2006 and 2011 presidential elections, but lost in all of them to the incumbent Yoweri Museveni. Another example is Morgan Tsvangirai who is the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change - Tsvangirai. Morgan contested in 2002, 2008 and 2013 lost in all occasions, claimed foul play and never conceded defeat. Mr. Abdullahi has given a new interpretation to the meaning of Raila Doctrine: It means the election in a given country is free and fair only when that losing candidate is declared the winner.
