Opinion polling on Scottish independence


This page lists public opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to the issue of Scottish independence. A referendum on the subject was held on 18 September 2014.

2014 referendum

Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence before the referendum and then during the campaign. Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population. This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007. The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined. Curtice stated in April 2014 that support for independence had increased since December 2013, although there was disagreement between the polling companies as to the true state of public opinion. Polls in the run-up to the referendum vote showed a closing of the gap, with one poll giving the Yes campaign a 51–49 lead. In the referendum, on 18 September 2014, Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, with an overall turnout of 84.6%.

Post-referendum polling

Since the referendum in September 2014, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a hypothetical second referendum. These polls have been carried out since six weeks after the referendum. Twenty-five opinion polls were conducted in the year after the referendum, with seventeen of them having "No" as the predominant answer, seven having "Yes", and one having an equal proportion of respondents for each opinion. During the period of 18 September 2015 to 18 September 2016 a further twenty-four opinion polls were conducted, of which twenty had "No" as the predominant answer while four had "Yes" as the predominant answer. From 18 September 2016 to 18 September 2017 twenty-six polls were conducted with twenty-five returning "No" as the most popular answer and only one returning "Yes" as the most popular answer.
"No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by Lord Ashcroft showed a narrow majority for "Yes". Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum. This trend continued into January 2020, when three polls put "Yes" support at between 50% and 52%.

Three-option polling

Prior to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, some three option opinion polls were conducted, giving respondents the option of full independence, some form of increased devolution and the status quo. One poll of this type has been conducted since the EU membership referendum.
Date
conducted		Polling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolution MaxStatus QuoUndecided
24-28 Jan 2018Survation/Scottish Independence Referendum Party32%15%36%17%

Historical polling

Two-way polling

Respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", with the options "I agree that Scotland should become an independent country" and "I do not agree that Scotland should become an independent country". These polls indicated the following levels of support for Scotland to be an independent country each year:
YearAgreeDisagreeLead
200940%52%12%
200739.5%45%5.5%
200651%39%12%
200145%49%4%
200047%43%4%
199943.5%46%2.5%
199852%39.5%12.5%

Three-way polling

During the late 1970s and 1980s, MORI conducted opinion polls on whether Scots wanted full independence, devolution or the status quo. During this period, devolution was the preferred option in each opinion poll, although support for independence increased.

Four-way polling

Between 1988 and 1995, MORI polled voters on independence giving four opinions: independence inside the European Economic Community, independence outside the organisation, devolution and the status quo.

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey

Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.
Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
  1. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
  2. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
  3. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
  4. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
  5. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.
A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".
YearPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolutionNo Parliament
199927%59%10%
200030%55%12%
200127%59%9%
200230%52%13%
200326%56%13%
200432%45%17%
200535%44%14%
200630%54%14%
200724%62%9%
200928%56%8%
201023%61%10%
201132%58%6%
201223%61%11%
201329%55%9%
201433%50%7%
201539%49%6%
201646%42%8%
201745%41%8%

Within the rest of the United Kingdom

British Social Attitudes Survey

The British Social Attitudes Survey has asked voters in England how Scotland should be governed, since the 1997 British Election Study. It has always found a plurality in favour of devolution, with majorities in favour between 1997 and 2003 and again in 2017. Since 2011, when the Scottish National Party won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, there has always been one in five people in England in favour of Scottish independence.
YearPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolutionNo Parliament
199714%55%23%
199921%57%14%
200019%52%17%
200119%60%11%
200219%52%15%
200317%58%13%
200719%48%18%
201126%44%19%
201225%43%23%
201320%49%18%
201523%49%20%
201722%55%15%