2020 Myanmar general election
General elections are scheduled to be held in Myanmar on 8 November 2020. Voting will occur in all constituencies, excluding seats appointed by/reserved for the military, to elect members to both the upper house and the lower house of the Assembly of the Union, and State and Regional Hluttaws. Ethnic Affairs Ministers will also be elected by their designated electorates on the same day, although only select ethnic minorities in particular states and regions will be entitled to vote for them. A total of 1,171 national, state and regional seats are up for grabs in the election, with polling set to take place in all townships, including areas considered conflict zones and self-administered regions.
Electoral system
All elected offices are contested under a first-past-the-post system, where a candidate needs only a plurality of votes in a constituency to be elected. One-quarter of seats in both houses of the Assembly of the Union are reserved for the military under the 2008 Constitution. After the new legislators take office, the President and the two Vice Presidents of Myanmar are elected by the Presidential Electoral College, made up of MPs. People married to a non-Burmese citizen, and/or who have children without Burmese citizenship are barred from being elected to any presidential position. Elected officials will take office in March 2021. For a majority, a party or coalition require 221 seats in the House of Representatives and 113 seats in the House of Nationalities.On 29 June 2020, the Election Commission announced the constituency reapportionment for the 330 non-appointed seats in the House of Representatives:
| State/Region | Constituencies allocated |
| Ayeyarwady Region | 26 |
| Bago Region | 28 |
| Chin State | 9 |
| Kachin State | 18 |
| Kayah State | 7 |
| Kayin State | 7 |
| Magway Region | 25 |
| Mandalay Region | 36 |
| Mon State | 10 |
| Rakhine State | 17 |
| Sagaing Region | 37 |
| Shan State | 55 |
| Tanintharyi Region | 10 |
| Yangon Region | 45 |
| Total | 330 |
Background
The prior elections in 2015 were only the second considered at least semi-democratic in the country, as for a majority of its independent history it was either controlled by an authoritarian dictatorship or a military junta. The National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won a majority of seats and votes, taking 86 percent of the seats in the Assembly of the Union, well more than the 67 percent supermajority needed to ensure that its preferred candidates would be elected president and second vice president in the Presidential Electoral College. The party technically also needed at least 67 percent to outvote the combined pro-military bloc in the Presidential Electoral College. Although NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from the presidency, she is currently the de facto head of government, after being appointed to a newly created office, the State Counsellor of Myanmar, a position akin to a Prime Minister. Most political parties in the country are ethnically-based, with only two having large sway at the national level, although both are dominated by the ethnic Bamar majority. Parties also tend to be personalistic rather than having a stable ideological platform.The election will take place during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as both the Rohingya conflict and the Rohingya genocide. In addition, the government has also been criticised for restricting press freedom and having failed to deal with the country's economic issues, putting dents in its electoral promise of reform.
Rohingya conflicts
Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy's actions since being elected in 2015 have been described by international media and international organisations including the United Nations, International Criminal Court, and Amnesty International as failing to stop the persecution of the Rohingya people, a Muslim minority group mainly in Rakhine State, although it is unclear how much say they actually have, regardless of their relative silence on the matter. The actions of the military, who are said to hold the real power in the region, have been described as crimes against humanity and a genocide. Over 25,000 people have been killed in the conflicts, with tens of thousands more being injured or subjected to sexual violence, in addition to over 700,000 people having fled the country, mostly to neighboring Bangladesh. Media activity in the province is heavily restricted by the government.Economic issues
According to the IMF:- Myanmar has seen a sharp decline in exports, remittances, and tourist arrivals due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Domestic economic activity has also been constrained by measures taken to control the spread of the virus. Additionally, nearly four out of five workers in Myanmar are employed in the informal sector, with limited access to social safety nets to help cope with any economic fallout.
- Natural gas comprised 40 percent of exports and 20 percent of government revenues in fiscal year 2018/19, and due to a drop in prices in 2020, the current account and fiscal position of the country became even more strained.
- The Burmese kyat, in contrast to trends elsewhere in the region, has appreciated in value. "The country's trade deficit had narrowed for about a year, leading to exchange rate appreciation pressures. This trend has now started to unwind. This may continue as imports pick up and the economy is projected to recover. At the same time, Myanmar’s foreign exchange intervention rule, adopted late last year, has facilitated accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which remain inadequate."
COVID-19
Despite only reporting around 300 confirmed cases of COVID-19 nationwide as of early July 2020, Myanmar has limited testing capacity, so it is unknown as to the true extent of the disease's spread. Authorities implemented strict containment measures early on regardless, including travel restrictions, closure of land borders, and bans on mass public gatherings.Constitutional reform
In January 2019, the National League for Democracy pushed for constitutional reform, but was unsuccessful, as any changes required 75% approval in the legislature, and 25% of seats are reserved for the military. Outside of these seats, the pro-military USDP was also unlikely to go along, meaning any proposals were dead on arrival.Opinion polls
Question: In general, would you say our country is heading in the right or wrong direction?| Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Right direction | Wrong direction | Don't know / No response |
| July 2019 | International Republican Institute | 77 | 19 | 5 | |
| April 2017 | International Republican Institute | 75 | 16 | 9 |
The main item a majority felt the country was headed in the right direction with was infrastructure, while the main reasons people felt the country was headed in the wrong direction included increasing prices of goods, continuing poor economic conditions, and ethnic violence. Illicit drug use and crime were also cited as major problems in the 2019 poll.
Question: How would you describe the current economic situation in the country?
| Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Very good | Somewhat good | Somewhat bad | Very bad | Don't know / No response |
| July 2019 | International Republican Institute | 10 | 51 | 25 | 9 | 5 | |
| April 2017 | International Republican Institute | 10 | 53 | 22 | 9 | 6 |
Question: As of now, in order to amend the Constitution it would require the support of more than 75% of parliament. Do you support or oppose making it easier to change the Constitution by amending this requirement?
| Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Strongly support | Somewhat support | Somewhat oppose | Strongly oppose | Don't know / No response |
| July 2019 | International Republican Institute | 43 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 11 | |
| April 2017 | International Republican Institute | 48 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
Most respondents who supported making it easier to change the Constitution also supported changing the requirement that spouses and any children of a candidate be citizens in order to be eligible for the presidency.
Question: Do you support giving the states and regions more autonomy and power so that they can make decisions for themselves, or do you think that all power and decisions should be centralized and made by the union government?
| Date | Polling firm | Publisher | More regional autonomy | Centralized power | Don't know / No response |
| July 2019 | International Republican Institute | 22 | 70 | 8 | |
| April 2017 | International Republican Institute | 23 | 67 | 10 |
Despite most respondents preferring more centralized power at the national level, slightly over half felt that states/regions should have more control over natural resources located within their boundaries.