2018 United States Senate election in Michigan


The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler. On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.
Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.50% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes, making this the closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.

Polling

Hypothetical polling--------

Results

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared

  • Marcia Squier, Green nominee for MI-14 in 2016

    Withdrew

  • Anita Belle, activist

    General election

Debates

Predictions

;Notes

Endorsements

Polling


Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Debbie
Stabenow 		John
James 		OtherUndecided
November 5, 2018827± 3.4%49%46%1%4%
November 2–5, 20181,817± 2.3%53%44%1%2%
November 4, 2018701± 3.7%53%46%0%1%
November 2–4, 2018880–49%47%3%–
November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%52%36%1%11%
October 29–30, 2018764± 3.6%54%41%–6%
October 25–27, 2018600± 4.0%53%36%3%8%
October 24–26, 2018822± 3.6%52%43%1%4%
October 25, 2018400± 5.0%52%46%0%2%
October 22–24, 2018800± 3.0%53%43%4%1%
October 18–23, 2018600± 4.0%49%42%5%4%
October 20–22, 2018605± 4.1%48%41%4%7%
October 13–22, 2018169–49%42%––
October 14–18, 2018600± 4.0%53%37%–5%
September 30 – October 7, 2018654± 3.8%51%42%–8%
September 30 – October 2, 2018600± 4.0%53%35%3%10%
September 21–25, 2018600± 4.0%56%33%5%6%
September 14–24, 20181,150± 3.0%55%35%4%6%
September 10–14, 2018800± 3.0%55%40%––
September 12–13, 20181,009± 3.0%54%41%–5%
September 8–9, 20181,000± 3.1%53%35%–11%
September 5–7, 2018600± 4.0%56%33%2%10%
August 14–16, 2018647± 3.9%51%35%–14%
August 13–14, 2018700± 3.7%50%35%2%13%
August 11–14, 2018602± 4.1%49%38%3%9%
July 19–21, 2018600± 4.3%47%29%8%17%
July 15–19, 2018886± 3.9%55%37%1%8%
June 11 – July 2, 2018978± 5.0%54%42%–4%
January 16–19, 2018600± 4.0%51%30%–18%

Results

While Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan. Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election. While James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats.
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