2016 United States presidential election in Virginia


The 2016 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Virginia voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Virginia voters do not register by party.
The Democratic Party candidate, Hillary Clinton of New York, carried Virginia with a 49.58% plurality in the popular vote against businessman Donald Trump of New York, who carried 44.56%, a victory margin of 5.02%. Clinton seemed to benefit from having former Virginia governor Tim Kaine on the ticket. Whereas the national popular vote swung 1.77% Republican from the previous election, Virginia swung 1.44% Democratic. Though Clinton's percentage was lower than both of Obama's margins in 2008, and 2012 however. Kaine himself became optimistic on election night after it became clear that he and Clinton would win Virginia by a larger margin than Obama did in 2012. His optimism soon faded, however, as it was announced that Clinton had lost many other important swing states to Trump.
Trump became the first Republican candidate since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to win the White House without carrying Virginia. The Old Dominion had been a traditionally Democratic-leaning state from the party's founding until 1952. Although Virginia was later considered a reliable Republican-leaning state from 1952 until 2008, it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004. This is due largely to migration into counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., which has tilted those densely populated areas towards the Democratic Party once more.
Virginia was the only of the eleven states that composed the Confederate States of America to vote Democratic in this election. This is a reversal from 1976, when it was the only state that had been part of the Confederacy to vote Republican. This was the first time since 1996 that Virginia went for the losing candidate. Virginia was also the only state Hillary Clinton won which was never carried by her husband Bill Clinton in either of his runs for president in 1992 and 1996. Virginia was one of eleven states to vote more Democratic than in 2012; other examples include Arizona, Texas, and Georgia.

Democratic primary

The 108 delegates from Virginia to the Democratic National Convention were allocated in this way. Among the pledged delegates, 62 of them were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district. The 33 at-large delegates were then allocated based on the statewide popular vote.

Republican primary

The 49 delegates from Virginia to the Republican National Convention were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote.

Libertarian nomination

The 2016 Libertarian Party presidential ticket was former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for president and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld for vice president. They earned those nominations at the Libertarian Party 2016 National Convention on Memorial Day weekend.

Green primary

The Virginia Green Party held its primary from March 20 through April 3. Party members were able to vote online through an email ballot or through the mail. On April 13, it was announced that Jill Stein had won with 76% of the vote. The state's four delegates were apportioned at the May 28 state meeting.

Polling

State voting history

Virginia joined the Union in June 1788 and has participated in all elections from 1789 onwards, except 1864 and 1868. Since 1900, Virginia voted Democratic 54.17% of the time and Republican 45.83% of the time. From 1968 to 2004, Virginia voted for the Republican Party candidate. Then, in the 2008 and 2012 elections, the state voted for the Democratic Party. The same trend continued in the 2016 presidential elections.
Clinton had several advantages in Virginia. The first was due in part to her landslide win in the Democratic primary against Senator Bernie Sanders. The second was Virginia has a significant number of African American voters, many of whom backed Clinton in the primary and both of President Barack Obama's wins in the state. The third was the state’s growing share of well-educated suburban voters, especially in the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C., who were moving away from the Republican Party in response to Trump being nominated for president. The fourth was Clinton's pick of the state's own US Senator, Tim Kaine, as her Vice Presidential running mate.
While polls throughout the campaign showed Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by varying margins in Virginia, it was announced on October 13 that the Trump campaign was pulling its resources out of the state, likely ceding to Clinton what was perceived to be a critical battleground state. According to the Trump campaign, the reason for pulling out of Virginia was to compete in more critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, all of which were states he won.

General election

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Virginia as of election day.
  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton
  2. CNN: Leans Clinton
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Clinton
  4. NBC: Leans Clinton
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup
  7. Fox News: Leans Clinton
  8. ABC: Leans Clinton

    Results

By city/county

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 11 congressional districts.
The 10th district was a "split district" as whilst it voted for Clinton in the presidential race, it also voted to re-elect a Republican member of congress.
DistrictClintonTrumpRepresentative
41%53%Rob Wittman
45%48%Scott Rigell
45%48%Scott Taylor
63%32%Robert C. Scott
58%37%Randy Forbes
58%37%Donald McEachin
42%53%Robert Hurt
42%53%Tom Garrett Jr.
35%59%Bob Goodlatte
44%50%Dave Brat
72%21%Don Beyer
27%68%Morgan Griffith
52%42%Barbara Comstock
66%27%Gerry Connolly

Counties and independent cities that swung from Democratic to Republican