2016 United States presidential election in Montana
The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was won by Republican Donald Trump and running mate Mike Pence, on November 8, 2016, with of the vote, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine received of the vote. Montana assigns all of its three Electoral votes to the winner of the state's popular vote.
The Montana primary was on June 7, 2016, selecting nominees for the two major parties, as well as the Libertarian Party. Registered members of each party may only vote in their party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated may choose any one primary in which to vote.
Trump's margin was 20.5%, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.7% win in 2012, and John McCain's 2.4% win in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.Primary elections
Democratic primary
Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
Predictions
- CNN: Solid Trump
- Cook Political Report: Solid Trump
- Electoral-vote.com: Solid Trump
- NBC: Leans Trump
- RealClearPolitics: Likely Trump
Results by county
Preliminary general election results for president as of 2016 by county. Totals exclude 2,621 write-in votes.
| County | Clinton% | Clinton# | Trump% | Trump# | Others% | Others# | Total |
| Beaverhead | 23.57% | 1143 | 69.15% | 3353 | 7.28% | 353 | 4849 |
| Big Horn | 49.57% | 2094 | 43.87% | 1853 | 6.56% | 277 | 4224 |
| Blaine | 45.00% | 1202 | 47.47% | 1268 | 7.53% | 201 | 2671 |
| Broadwater | 18.30% | 573 | 74.97% | 2348 | 6.74% | 211 | 3132 |
| Carbon | 30.64% | 1828 | 62.81% | 3748 | 6.55% | 391 | 5967 |
| Carter | 8.99% | 70 | 87.03% | 678 | 3.98% | 31 | 779 |
| Cascade | 35.41% | 12175 | 57.10% | 19632 | 7.49% | 2577 | 34384 |
| Chouteau | 28.27% | 732 | 64.85% | 1679 | 6.88% | 178 | 2589 |
| Custer | 22.68% | 1176 | 70.53% | 3657 | 6.79% | 352 | 5185 |
| Daniels | 17.59% | 168 | 76.44% | 730 | 5.97% | 57 | 955 |
| Dawson | 18.17% | 787 | 76.66% | 3320 | 5.17% | 224 | 4331 |
| Deer Lodge | 49.07% | 2058 | 42.04% | 1763 | 8.89% | 373 | 4194 |
| Fallon | 10.38% | 154 | 86.19% | 1279 | 3.44% | 51 | 1484 |
| Fergus | 20.58% | 1202 | 73.10% | 4269 | 6.32% | 369 | 5840 |
| Flathead | 28.59% | 13293 | 65.04% | 30240 | 6.37% | 2961 | 46494 |
| Gallatin | 45.50% | 24246 | 44.66% | 23802 | 9.84% | 5244 | 53292 |
| Garfield | 4.75% | 34 | 91.20% | 653 | 4.05% | 29 | 716 |
| Glacier | 61.67% | 3121 | 32.01% | 1620 | 6.32% | 320 | 5061 |
| Golden Valley | 15.07% | 71 | 77.49% | 365 | 7.43% | 35 | 471 |
| Granite | 26.59% | 472 | 67.15% | 1192 | 6.25% | 111 | 1775 |
| Hill | 36.90% | 2371 | 54.12% | 3478 | 8.98% | 577 | 6426 |
| Jefferson | 29.96% | 1998 | 62.64% | 4177 | 7.39% | 493 | 6668 |
| Judith Basin | 19.57% | 235 | 72.61% | 872 | 7.83% | 94 | 1201 |
| Lake | 36.43% | 4776 | 57.44% | 7530 | 6.13% | 804 | 13110 |
| Lewis and Clark | 42.28% | 14478 | 49.34% | 16895 | 8.39% | 2872 | 34245 |
| Liberty | 21.55% | 206 | 73.01% | 698 | 5.44% | 52 | 956 |
| Lincoln | 21.98% | 2041 | 72.48% | 6729 | 5.54% | 514 | 9284 |
| Madison | 24.88% | 1180 | 69.51% | 3297 | 5.61% | 266 | 4743 |
| McCone | 14.53% | 154 | 81.32% | 862 | 4.15% | 44 | 1060 |
| Meagher | 19.79% | 193 | 74.77% | 729 | 5.44% | 53 | 975 |
| Mineral | 25.91% | 519 | 66.40% | 1330 | 7.69% | 154 | 2003 |
| Missoula | 53.44% | 31543 | 37.70% | 22250 | 8.87% | 5233 | 59026 |
| Musselshell | 13.74% | 332 | 81.42% | 1967 | 4.84% | 117 | 2416 |
| Park | 38.63% | 3595 | 53.51% | 4980 | 7.86% | 731 | 9306 |
| Petroleum | 9.32% | 30 | 86.34% | 278 | 4.35% | 14 | 322 |
| Phillips | 14.72% | 318 | 79.73% | 1723 | 5.55% | 120 | 2161 |
| Pondera | 27.17% | 738 | 66.24% | 1799 | 6.59% | 179 | 2716 |
| Powder River | 12.08% | 127 | 84.11% | 884 | 3.81% | 40 | 1051 |
| Powell | 19.72% | 551 | 72.62% | 2029 | 7.66% | 214 | 2794 |
| Prairie | 14.51% | 100 | 80.70% | 556 | 4.79% | 33 | 689 |
| Ravalli | 27.85% | 6223 | 66.28% | 14810 | 5.88% | 1313 | 22346 |
| Richland | 13.84% | 671 | 80.63% | 3908 | 5.53% | 268 | 4847 |
| Roosevelt | 42.76% | 1560 | 49.26% | 1797 | 7.98% | 291 | 3648 |
| Rosebud | 28.69% | 987 | 65.49% | 2253 | 5.81% | 200 | 3440 |
| Sanders | 20.61% | 1218 | 72.52% | 4286 | 6.87% | 406 | 5910 |
| Sheridan | 26.04% | 477 | 67.74% | 1241 | 6.22% | 114 | 1832 |
| Silver Bow | 52.43% | 8619 | 38.79% | 6376 | 8.78% | 1444 | 16439 |
| Stillwater | 18.66% | 908 | 75.24% | 3661 | 6.10% | 297 | 4866 |
| Sweet Grass | 19.14% | 402 | 75.95% | 1595 | 4.90% | 103 | 2100 |
| Teton | 25.42% | 808 | 68.26% | 2170 | 6.32% | 201 | 3179 |
| Toole | 19.80% | 402 | 73.74% | 1497 | 6.45% | 131 | 2030 |
| Treasure | 13.32% | 59 | 79.23% | 351 | 7.45% | 33 | 443 |
| Valley | 22.86% | 886 | 69.61% | 2698 | 7.53% | 292 | 3876 |
| Wheatland | 18.96% | 179 | 74.36% | 702 | 6.67% | 63 | 944 |
| Wibaux | 10.24% | 55 | 86.22% | 463 | 3.54% | 19 | 537 |
| Yellowstone | 32.35% | 22171 | 59.70% | 40920 | 7.96% | 5453 | 68544 |
Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican
- Blaine
- Hill
- Roosevelt
Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic
- Gallatin
Analysis
Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefited from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspicious and disapproving of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.
Most counties in the western part of the state were also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.
The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.
