2010 Taiwanese local elections
Local elections were held in Taiwan on 27 November 2010 to elect mayors, councillors, and village chiefs of special-municipalities, known as the Five Municipalities Elections. Mayoral candidates for the Kuomintang were elected in New Taipei, Taipei, and Taichung, while candidates for the Democratic Progressive Party were elected in Kaohsiung and Tainan. On the eve of the election, Sean Lien, son of former Vice President Chan Lien, was shot in face when he was campaigning for a Kuomintang New Taipei councillor candidate.
Earlier in the year on 12 June 2010, elections were held to elect representatives in township/city councils and village chiefs.
Results summary
Taipei
Electoral background
As the capital of Taiwan, Taipei functions as the economic and political centre of Taiwan, and is currently the largest city of Taiwan. Due to the great allocation of resources to Taipei, the Municipal Mayoral position of Taipei is of extreme strategic importance within the political arena, and has always been a fiercely contested position. Because two directly elected Municipal Mayors of Taipei, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou, were elected the Presidents in 2000 and 2008 respectively, the position has been widely speculated to be a "first-step" towards the Presidential Office.Having been under the administration of the Kuomintang for the past twelve years, Taipei is commonly considered to be solidly in the Pan-Blue political camp. Recent estimates show that approximately 60% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Blue Coalition, whilst 40% support the Pan-Green Coalition. A significant proportion of eligible voters in Taiwan identify themselves as having no political inclination. The incumbent Taipei Municipal Mayor Hau Lung-pin of the Kuomintang stood for his second term in this election.
Polling
| Poll source | Date of completion | Hau Lung-pin | Su Tseng-chang | Undecided |
| TVBS | May 26, 2010 | 46% | 41% | 14% |
| Era Television | June 11, 2010 | 39.3% | 41.0% | 19.6% |
| Era Television | June 22, 2010 | 41.8% | 37.7% | 20.5% |
| China Times | July 15, 2010 | 42.9% | 38.5% | 18.7% |
| TVBS | July 20, 2010 | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| I-tel Research | August 19, 2010 | 58.33% | 41.67% | — |
| TVBS | August 25, 2010 | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Apple Daily | August 29, 2010 | 43.12% | 44.68% | 12.20% |
| I-tel Research | September 1, 2010 | 44.55% | 55.45% | — |
| TVBS | September 8, 2010 | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| China Times | September 17, 2010 | 39.0% | 41.2% | 19.8% |
| I-tel Research | September 20, 2010 | 52.94% | 47.06% | — |
| United Daily News | September 26, 2010 | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Apple Daily | October 3, 2010 | 47.52% | 35.64% | 16.84% |
| TVBS | October 6, 2010 | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Shih Hsin University | October 12, 2010 | 33.2% | 30.1% | 36.7% |
| Liberty Times | October 21, 2010 | 36.84% | 37.45% | 25.71% |
| United Daily News | October 24, 2010 | 48% | 37% | 15% |
| TVBS | October 27, 2010 | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| China Times | November 3, 2010 | 42.7% | 42.1% | 15.2% |
| Wealth Magazine | November 7, 2010 | 37.2% | 38.5% | 24.3% |
| Shih Hsin University | November 8, 2010 | 33.4% | 33.0% | 33.6% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | November 10, 2010 | 39.3% | 40.8% | 19.9% |
| TVBS | November 11, 2010 | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| China Times | November 14, 2010 | 47.3% | 39.6% | 13.2% |
Predictions
Results
Municipal Mayoral Election
Municipal Councilmen Election
Ward Chiefs Election
New Taipei
Electoral background
was promoted into a central municipality, and replaced Taipei City as the largest city of Taiwan. Taipei County was under the administration of the Kuomintang, with the incumbent Taipei County Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei serving as mayor. However, unlike Taipei City, which is solidly in the Pan-Blue political camp, the electoral composition of Taipei County is more evenly distributed between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green Coalition supporters, with only a very slight overall inclination towards the Pan-Blue political camp. It should also be noted that Taipei County had previously been under the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party for 16 years, until the incumbent County Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei won power 5 years ago.Polling
| Poll source | Date of completion | Eric Chu Li-luan | Tsai Ing-wen | Undecided |
| China Times | May 24, 2010 | 33.0% | 28.2% | 38.7% |
| TVBS | May 24, 2010 | 43% | 44% | 14% |
| TVBS | July 16, 2010 | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| China Times | July 17, 2010 | 39.2% | 39.8% | 21.0% |
| Era Television | July 21, 2010 | 41.1% | 36.2% | 22.7% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | August 19, 2010 | 44.2% | 44.1% | 11.7% |
| TVBS | August 23, 2010 | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| I-tel Research | August 23, 2010 | 45% | 55% | — |
| I-tel Research | September 7, 2010 | 43.9% | 56.1% | — |
| Apple Daily | September 11, 2010 | 47.04% | 39.08% | 13.88% |
| China Times | September 17, 2010 | 42.1% | 38.1% | 19.8% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | September 23, 2010 | 44.4% | 43.5% | 12.1% |
| United Daily News | September 27, 2010 | 45% | 28% | 26% |
| I-tel Research | September 28, 2010 | 55.63% | 44.38% | — |
| Apple Daily | October 4, 2010 | 48.49% | 35.13% | 16.38% |
| TVBS | October 5, 2010 | 47% | 35% | 17% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | October 7, 2010 | 43.1% | 43.5% | 13.4% |
| Citizen's Association of Taiwan | October 8, 2010 | 37.9% | 35.3% | 26.8% |
| Shih Hsin University | October 10, 2010 | 35.3% | 31.3% | 33.4% |
| China Times | October 17, 2010 | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Liberty Times | October 19, 2010 | 35.81% | 34.00% | 30.19% |
| United Daily News | October 27, 2010 | 45% | 37% | 18% |
| TVBS | October 29, 2010 | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| China Times | November 2, 2010 | 44% | 38% | 18% |
| Liberty Times | November 2, 2010 | 35.82% | 38.49% | 25.69% |
| Wealth Magazine | November 5, 2010 | 39.3% | 34.3% | 26.4% |
| Decision Making Research | November 6, 2010 | 39.9% | 37.2% | 22.9% |
| Shih Hsin University | November 7, 2010 | 33.5% | 30.4% | 36.1% |
| China Times | November 8, 2010 | 45.6% | 41.6% | 12.8% |
| TVBS | November 9, 2010 | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | November 12, 2010 | 40.3% | 39.1% | 20.6% |
| Liberty Times | November 12, 2010 | 38.81% | 39.29% | 21.90% |
Predictions
Results
Municipal Mayoral Election
Municipal Councilmen Election
Ward Chiefs Election
Taichung
Electoral background
The newly created central municipality Taichung will be formed from the merging and elevation of Taichung County and Taichung City, both of which are currently county-level divisions of Taiwan. At present, both Taichung County and Taichung are under the administration of the Kuomintang, with the incumbent Taichung County Magistrate being Huang Chung-sheng and the incumbent Taichung City Mayor being Jason Hu Chih-chiang. The electoral composition of Taichung County is relatively balanced with only a slight overall inclination towards the Pan-Blue political camp, whereas Taichung City is commonly considered to be mildly leaning towards the Pan-Blue political camp. It is estimated that in Taichung County, approximately 52% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Blue Coalition, whilst 48% support the Pan-Green Coalition. In Taichung City, the proportion of Pan-Blue to Pan-Green supporters within voters who identify themselves with political inclination is approximately 55% to 45%.
Polling
| Poll source | Date of completion | Jason Hu Chih-chiang | Su Jia-chyuan | Undecided |
| Apple Daily | May 24, 2010 | 53.40% | 35.39% | 11.21% |
| TVBS | May 25, 2010 | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| United Daily News | June 4, 2010 | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Liberty Times | June 9, 2010 | 35.59% | 28.71% | 29.67% |
| Era Television | July 6, 2010 | 44.6% | 32.5% | 22.9% |
| TVBS | July 22, 20102 | 51% | 31% | 19% |
| Era Television | July 27, 2010 | 43.5% | 30.7% | 25.8% |
| I-tel Research | August 26, 2010 | 62% | 38% | — |
| TVBS | August 27, 2010 | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| I-tel Research | September 9, 2010 | 52.25% | 47.75% | — |
| Democratic Progressive Party | September 15, 2010 | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| China Times | September 19, 2010 | 41% | 35% | 25% |
| Apple Daily | September 26, 2010 | 51.82% | 36.26% | 11.92% |
| United Daily News | September 28, 2010 | 43% | 25% | 29% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | September 29, 2010 | 46.4% | 33.3% | 20.3% |
| I-tel Research | September 29, 2010 | 59.57% | 40.43% | — |
| TVBS | October 12, 2010 | 47% | 34% | 18% |
| Shih Hsin University | October 12, 2010 | 37.9% | 22.2% | 39.9% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | October 13, 2010 | 45.7% | 35.3% | 19.0% |
| United Daily News | October 27, 2010 | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | October 27, 2010 | 40.5% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
| China Times | October 31, 2010 | 43% | 33% | 23% |
| Liberty Times | November 5, 2010 | 34.85% | 30.04% | 35.11% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | November 6, 2010 | 40.1% | 35.1% | 24.8% |
| Shih Hsin University | November 9, 2010 | 36.3% | 26.5% | 37.2% |
| China Times | November 12, 2010 | 47.1% | 40.1% | 12.8% |
| Beterly Research | November 15, 2010 | 28.9% | 29.2% | 41.9% |
Predictions
Results
Municipal Mayoral Election
Municipal Councilmen Election
Ward Chiefs Election
Tainan
Electoral background
The newly created central municipality Tainan will be formed from the merging and elevation of Tainan County and Tainan City, both of which are currently county-level divisions of Taiwan. The incumbent Tainan County Magistrate Su Huan-chih and the incumbent Tainan City Mayor being Hsu Tain-tsair are both members of the Democratic Progressive Party. Having been under the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party for the past seventeen and thirteen years respectively, both Tainan County and Tainan City are commonly considered to be strongholds of the Pan-Green political camp. It is estimated that in both the county and the city, approximately 60% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Green Coalition, whilst 40% support the Pan-Blue Coalition.
Polling
| Poll source | Date of completion | William Lai Ching-te | Kuo Tien-tsai | Undecided |
| TVBS | May 20, 2010 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| TVBS | July 27, 2010 | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Era Television | August 17, 2010 | 47.7% | 18.9% | 33.4% |
| I-tel Research | August 27, 2010 | 67.21% | 32.79% | — |
| TVBS | August 31, 2010 | 53% | 25% | 21% |
| I-tel Research | September 13, 2010 | 75.42% | 24.58% | — |
| China Times | September 18, 2010 | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| United Daily News | September 29, 2010 | 44% | 20% | 33% |
| I-tel Research | September 30, 2010 | 66.43% | 33.57% | — |
| TVBS | October 13, 2010 | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Shih Hsin University | October 16, 2010 | 36.2% | 23.3% | 40.5% |
| Liberty Times | October 23, 2010 | 44.07% | 16.73% | 39.2% |
| United Daily News | October 29, 2010 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| China Times | October 29, 2010 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| TVBS | November 4, 2010 | 47% | 34% | 18% |
| Shih Hsin University | November 13, 2010 | 37.7% | 22.0% | 40.3% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | November 13, 2010 | 51.3% | 25.9% | 22.8% |
Predictions
Results
Municipal Mayoral Election
Municipal Councilmen Election
Ward Chiefs Election
Kaohsiung
Electoral background
The newly created central municipality Kaohsiung will be formed from the merging of Kaohsiung County and the current central municipality Kaohsiung City. The incumbent Kaohsiung Municipal Mayor Chen Chu and the incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-hsing are both members of the Democratic Progressive Party. Having been under the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party for the past twelve years, the electoral composition of Kaohsiung City has a slight overall inclination towards the Pan-Green political camp. On the other hand, Kaohsiung County has been under the control of Tangwai members and the Democratic Progressive Party for 25 years, is widely considered to be solidly in the Pan-Green political camp. It is estimated that in Kaohsiung County, approximately 60% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Green Coalition, whilst 40% support the Pan-Blue Coalition.
Polling
| Poll source | Date of completion | Chen Chu | Yang Chiu-hsing | Huang Chao-shun | Undecided |
| TVBS | May 27, 2010 | 62% | — | 26% | 12% |
| Era Television | July 13, 2010 | 45.4% | 25.4% | 11.7% | 17.5% |
| TVBS | July 29, 2010 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 15% |
| Apple Daily | August 3, 2010 | 43.75% | 27.18% | 20.49% | 8.58% |
| Era Television | August 3, 2010 | 43.6% | 23.8% | 11.5% | 21.2% |
| United Daily News | August 4, 2010 | 44% | 23% | 13% | 19% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | August 9, 2010 | 53.7% | 22.6% | 15.3% | 8.4% |
| TVBS | August 10, 2010 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 12% |
| I-tel Research | August 16, 2010 | 54.35% | 36.96% | 8.70% | — |
| Liberty Times | August 18, 2010 | 46% | 19% | 7% | 28% |
| I-tel Research | August 31, 2010 | 48.36% | 20.49% | 31.15% | — |
| TVBS | September 2, 2010 | 46% | 22% | 16% | 16% |
| I-tel Research | September 17, 2010 | 56.45% | 25.81% | 17.74% | — |
| China Times | September 18, 2010 | 45.5% | 20.2% | 14.9% | 19.3% |
| Apple Daily | September 23, 2010 | 36.39% | 24.60% | 18.05% | 20.96% |
| United Daily News | September 26, 2010 | 37% | 24% | 14% | 23% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | September 27, 2010 | 46.0% | 26.3% | 12.4% | 15.3% |
| TVBS | September 28, 2010 | 42% | 21% | 18% | 19% |
| The Commons Daily | September 29, 2010 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 7.3% | 42.4% |
| Apple Daily | September 29, 2010 | 38.30% | 22.48% | 19.61% | 19.61% |
| China Times | September 30, 2010 | 42.8% | 21.1% | 13.8% | 22.3% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | October 12, 2010 | 47.0% | 21.7% | 14.8% | 16.5% |
| Shih Hsin University | October 14, 2010 | 31.7% | 20.6% | 15.2% | 32.5% |
| TVBS | October 25, 2010 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 15% |
| China Times | October 28, 2010 | 47.1% | 23.4% | 10.3% | 19.2% |
| Liberty Times | October 30, 2010 | 43.27% | 18.52% | 7.8% | 30.41% |
| United Daily News | October 31, 2010 | 39% | 29% | 16% | 16% |
| TVBS | November 7, 2010 | 41% | 28% | 16% | 15% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | November 9, 2010 | 47.2% | 25.6% | 12.5% | 14.7% |
| Shih Hsin University | November 11, 2010 | 34.1% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 32.4% |
| Liberty Times | November 15, 2010 | 45.03% | 16.76% | 11.51% | 26.37% |
| China Times | November 15, 2010 | 46.0% | 24.0% | 13.7% | 16.3% |
Predictions
Results
Municipal Mayoral Election
Municipal Councilmen Election
Ward Chiefs Election
Implications and reactions
A forum entitled "Policy Direction after Five Metropolitan Elections in Taiwan", organized by the Institute for National Policy Research on Monday, November 29, 2010, concluded that although the Kuomintang won three of the five mayoral positions, in terms of the overall votes won, the real victor was in fact the Democratic Progressive Party.Raymond Burghardt, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, said that the way both parties handled the shooting which wounded Sean Lien, son of former vice-president Lien Chan, "was also a sign of political maturity."
Taiwanese political scientist Hsu Yung-ming believed that the elections signalled the era of the new "Four Heavenly Kings" Tsai Ing-wen, Chen Chu, William Lai and Su Jia-chyuan within the Democratic Progressive Party.