There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
Associated Press: Leans Bush
CNN: Bush
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Newsweek: Solid Bush
New York Times: Leans Bush
Rasmussen Reports: Bush
Research 2000: Solid Bush
Washington Post: Bush
Washington Times: Leans Bush
Zogby International: Bush
Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.
Fundraising
Bush raised $3,196,692. Kerry raised $1,525,930.
Advertising and visits
Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.
Analysis
The exit polls showed that Bush was the going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that both Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush. The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated Maricopa County with almost 57%. However, Kerry did win portions of state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and Arizona's 7th congressional district and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.
Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.
